Colleagues,
As you can see from the PPIC poll below, Prop. 30 has dropped to only 48% YES. As you all should know well by now, if Prop. 30 fails, nearly $6 billion in cuts to education will automatically take place, which will result locally in the cancellation of hundreds of class sections, along with the concomitant loss of part-time faculty jobs, and denied access to classes for thousands of students.
There are still ways you can help us bring Prop. 30 above 50%:
1) PHONE BANKING We can use more volunteers to help us with phone banking. We are calling high propensity friendly voters Monday-Friday from 4:00-7:00pm and Saturdays from 10:00am-1:00pm at our AFT office in Mission Valley. You will be given a script and training. Please click here to sign up for phone banking!
2) CONTACT EVERYONE YOU KNOW Please send an email to every possible email contact you have urging them to vote YES on Prop. 30. Post it on your Facebook. Tweet it. Write “YES on 30” on your forehead. It doesn’t take much individual effort to get the word out to literally hundreds of thousands of voters if we all do our part. As an employee of the college district, you have a lot of influence over friends and family members regarding matters relating to education. Use it.
3) MAKE A CONTRIBUTION TO OUR COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION (COPE) so we can hire more student workers. We already have about 25 paid student interns working on these campaigns. We can hire more, and give more hours to our existing interns, if we receive more donations. Anyone can contribute to our COPE, whether you’re an AFT member or not. City College President Terry Burgess gives $50 per month. Maybe you can’t give at that level, but any amount helps. You can send a check in any amount made out to: AFT Guild, Local 1931 COPE. Or you can sign up for a monthly payroll deduction by clicking here.
Please don’t sit on the sidelines. There is plenty you can do to help without much effort.
In Unity,
Jim
Jim Mahler, President
AFT Guild, Local 1931
San Diego & Grossmont-Cuyamaca
Community Colleges
Poll: Brown tax hike falling short
Voters opposing rival tax plan, restrictions on union fundraising
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Gov. Jerry Brown’s initiative that would raise taxes to help pay for schools and local public safety programs continues to lose ground among likely voters, slipping below the all-important majority approval mark for the first time in a new poll.
The survey by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California released Wednesday night found that support for Brown’s Proposition 30 stands at 48 percent, posing a challenge for the governor to win over a majority of voters with less than two weeks before they go to the polls Nov. 6. Forty-four percent are opposed.
A rival ballot measure backed by wealthy attorney Molly Munger that relies on pushing up income taxes on most Californians to fund public education is faring even worse, with 39 percent in favor and 53 percent saying they will vote no.
In another significant finding, the PPIC poll signals that Proposition 32 — which would ban union and corporate payroll deductions for political purposes — is also losing by an identical margin: 39 percent support and 53 percent opposed.
Proposition 30 would raise an estimated $6 billion annually by increasing the sales tax by a quarter cent for four years and raising income tax rates for seven years for individuals earning more than $250,000 ($500,000 per couple).
The money would be directed to K-12 schools and to local governments responsible for implementing public safety programs shifted to them by the state last year.
PPIC President Mark Baldassare said Proposition 30 has a tough hill to climb. “It’s going to be very close,” he said. “The outcome will depend very much on the nature of the electorate.”
Brown’s initiative has hovered at about 50 percent in previous surveys, always falling within the margin of error, Baldassare said. Political analysts agree that an initiative — particularly a tax increase — usually needs to have a stronger majority in advance polls to survive on Election Day.
Brown warns that if voters reject the tax hikes he will have to ax $5.4 billion in funding for K-12 schools and community colleges, as well as slice spending for higher education and other programs. The result will be shorter school years and increased tuition, he said.
The governor has been on a cross-state, whirlwind trip promoting Proposition 30, including a stop Tuesday at Perkins School in the Barrio Logan neighborhood of San Diego.
“It’s money into the schools or it’s money out of the schools. This is third-grade arithmetic,” Brown said. “It’s a lot of money toward schools, teachers or it’s a lot of money to people who already have more than you can imagine. Most of this tax money will be paid by not millionaires, but multimillionaires and billionaires.”
The trend for Proposition 30 has been negative. Support has retreated from the 52 percent in the PPIC poll last month and 54 percent in April.
But the survey sends some mixed messages. While most oppose taxes, nearly three out of four said they do not want to see the automatic cuts to schools already approved by Brown and the Legislature if the initiative is defeated.
Proposition 38 promoted by Munger and the Parent Teachers Association has also lost considerable ground in the last month. In the September poll, the measure was tied 45 percent to 45 percent. Opponents are now a majority.
Proposition 38 would raise about $10 billion a year by hiking income tax rates on all but the poorest of Californians for 12 years, starting in 2013. The money would go to schools, early childhood programs and to pay down the state’s debt.
There is an ominous sign for both school funding measures. Parents of children in public schools, those seemingly with the most at stake, narrowly reject both. Brown’s initiative is opposed 46 percent to 45 percent while Munger’s measure trails 46 percent to 44 percent.
Also, a couple of telling results from the survey could explain why the tax hikes appear to be in trouble. Of likely voters, more than two-thirds say they trust Sacramento to do what’s right only some of the time. Another 10 percent voluntarily offered “none of the time” in response to the question.
Moreover, 60 percent responded “a lot” when asked how much tax money is wasted by state government.
Of those who say they favor tax increases, 64 percent want to target the wealthy, 59 percent say increase corporate taxes, 28 percent prefer a sales tax hike and 24 percent favor raising income tax rates.
A large number of likely voters appear to have a favorite between the two. Just 28 percent say they plan to vote for both propositions. If both do pass, the one with the most votes wins.
The PPIC also asked about Proposition 32, the measure aimed at weakening union clout by taking away their ability to deduct dues from pay checks for political purposes. The measure would impose the same restrictions on corporations, but they rarely employ the practice.
Of likely voters, 39 percent say they will vote yes and 53 percent no, signaling opposition is gaining momentum. In September, during its first PPIC polling, Proposition 32 trailed, 42 percent in favor to and 49 percent opposed.
Among the other key findings:
• 53 percent prefer President Barack Obama to 41 percent for GOP challenger Mitt Romney.
• 69 percent of Republicans are satisfied with Romney as their nominee; 77 percent of Democrats say the same about Obama.
• 70 percent of Republicans and 60 percent of Democrats say they are “more enthusiastic” about voting in this election.
• 54 percent approve of Obama’s performance, but just 15 percent are satisfied with Congress.
• 43 percent say the state’s chronic fiscal woes should be resolved through a mix of cuts and taxes, while 40 percent believe the budget gap should be closed by spending less with no new taxes.
• 45 percent approve of Brown’s job performance, but just 21 percent are satisfied with the Legislature.
• 60 percent see California moving in the wrong direction and 55 percent say the nation is on the wrong track.
• 53 percent see bad times ahead for California in the next 12 months and 48 percent are pessimistic about the U.S. economy in the coming year.
• 68 percent said the federal government does what’s right only some of the time and 73 percent say the federal government is “run by a few big interests looking out for themselves.”
The survey of 2,006 Californians, including 1,320 registered voters, was taken from Oct. 14 through Oct. 21. Among the 993 likely voters quizzed, 46 percent were Democrats, 34 percent Republicans and 18 percent independents. That’s a few points higher than the voter registration for each of the parties and slightly lower for independents.
The poll has a margin of error of between 3.2 percent and 4 percent depending on the subgroup polled.
Staff writer Christopher Cadelago contributed to this report.
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